Premier League betting: Arsenal vs. Everton predictions, picks for Sun. 5/19

Arsenal vs. Everton Odds

Sunday, May 19, 11 a.m. ET, USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal

As you've likely heard a million times already, this fixture is must-win for the North London outfit if they want to have a hope of finishing top of the pile. Even though they've rattled off five wins in a row, including away matches against Tottenham and Manchester United, they're still two points behind Manchester City entering the final weekend of the season.

By most metrics, Arsenal have been the best team in England across 37 games, and they'll have clear motivation to show why that's the case in this one. Even if it ultimately won't propel them past the Cityzens, a strong result here would still make a statement and send them into next season on a somewhat positive note.

As has been the case in recent weeks, there are virtually no fitness concerns for the Gunners, and there's even a chance Jurrien Timber could make his first appearance since the first game of the season after recovering from a knee injury. Arteta is likely to stick with the same starting XI as what he put out at Old Trafford, as he tends to avoid changing a winning team. That would mean Takehiro Tomiyasu continues at left back, Thomas Partey at the base of the midfield and a front three of Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.

Everton

If not for the two teams fighting for the title, Everton would be on the best run of form in the league having taken 13 of a possible 15 points from their last five matches. Granted, that's a fixture list that's included four of the current bottom five, but it's still a strong finish to a difficult campaign for the Toffees.

After navigating points deductions and a bit of a relegation battle, Sean Dyche and co. currently sit 15th in the league table. If they hadn't been deducted eight points, they'd be 11th with a chance of finishing top-half, but far from both the European places and the drop, there's not much for Everton to play for in this one from a standings perspective.

Of course, they'll also want to continue their stellar run into the offseason and maybe even play spoiler to potential title celebrations. Recent history at Emirates Stadium — they've won there just once this century, and that was with no crowd — plus Arsenal's quality means that's going to an extraordinarily tough ask though.

Everton will sit in their 4-5-1 mid/deep block and use Calvert-Lewin as a launching point for attacking transitions, which will be far and few between, and try to grind out a positive result in a low-scoring affair. The first goal will be crucial, as it will either give the visitors license to sit even deeper and see out a 1-0 win or force them to open up as they chase an equalizer. If it's the latter, things could get especially tricky for them, as Arsenal will look to exploit the gaps that start to appear.

Arsenal vs Everton

Prediction

The only way goal difference will matter in determining the title is if Manchester City draw and Arsenal win here, but the Gunners will have a superior margin in that case no matter what, so they won't necessarily have to win by as much as possible. However, even if the trophy is out of reach, there will likely be a feel-good factor around the stadium and the home side will want to reward that — as well as capping off another season of progress — with an entertaining display.

Mental circumstances aside, Everton struggle to soak up pressure on the road, and once the Gunners find the breakthrough — which, needing a win, they almost certainly will — they'll have to open up a bit to find an equalizer. That will create gaps for their opponents to exploit, and the floodgates will open. As a result, at plus money I like Arsenal against the spread.

Pick: Arsenal -2.5 (+120)