Pictured: Noah Gragson, driver of the No. 10 Overstock.com Ford. Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images.

NASCAR odds for Darlington: An undervalued prop to lock in now

Originally posted on Action Network | By PJ Walsh | Last updated 5/8/24

Last weekend's NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway was one of the greatest of all-time.

It had everything a fan could ask for: passing, multiple grooves of a racing and the closest finish in Cup Series history.

It's a tough ask for any track to follow up what we saw on Sunday, however, Darlington Raceway puts on great shows as well for similar reasons to Kansas.

Both tracks wear tires, though Darlington's tire fall off is more severe, putting more emphasis on the driver than the car itself.

Therefore, some drivers, like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick are just better — or have a unique skillset — than the rest of the field when tires wire out at tracks like Darlington.

In addition, there's one under-the-radar driver who excels at "running the wall" at Darlington, but is priced at just +175 to score a top-10 finish in Sunday's Goodyear 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1).

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Darlington

*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon

Noah Gragson was consistently a contender at Darlington in the XFINITY Series due to his ability to "run the wall," which means driving as close to the wall as possible in the turns to maximize grip and get big runs off the corners.

Specifically, here are Gragson's finishes in seven career XFINITY Series races at Darlington: Eighth, fifth, seventh, fourth, first, second and first.

And while there aren't any perfect comps to Darlington due to its unique, egg-like shape, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has performed well at tracks known for at least some tire wear this season, finishing sixth at Las Vegas, 12th at Richmond and ninth at Kansas.

In the name of transparency, Gragson did struggle to a 34th-place result at Bristol, which saw a surprising amount of tire wear, but I'm willing to give him and that team a pass considering they're new this season and didn't expect those conditions coming into the race.

Am I confirmation-biasing myself into this bet by ignoring Bristol, maybe. But it's my bankroll and I'm in on Gragson at +175 for a top-1o finish on Sunday.

The bet: Noah Gragson (+175) for a Top-10 Finish — Fanatics

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